Multi-Level Poker-Like thinking on Survivor Part 1.

Boston Rob, noted for his attempt to become a professional poker player, and has become a Gulf Coast rounder of sorts (he's at most of the tournaments locally driving in from Florida) kind of got blind sided by an ally's lack of foresight on Survivor. I realize most of you may not watch the show, but I found it an intellectual battle of wits with Rob and his rival Russell going one level over the other. It was a bit like poker strategy where you start asking yourself why would he bet a hand like that, only if he wants me to call, but if he knows I'll think that, he wouldn't do that...

Survivor used to be predictable where they would frame every elimination by making one outcome, the wrong outcome, look most likely. So after a while you'd expect the opposite to always happen. And to a degree they still do that, but evey once in a while they surprise you by the most predictable outcome actually happening or presenting two outcomes as equally viable.

In this week's episode, there were two eliminations one from each team. In one, they framed it that Colby was going home, and they did so by him announcing the conclusion was foregone. He didn't go home. No surprise there. Strong is weak... so to speak for the producers. If he was really going home, they would have editted that part out to heighten drama.

On the other side of things, was the interesting part. Two of my favorite players circled each other and announced their intentions that they were coming for each other. Russell an unknown to Boston Rob, was on last season's Survivor, which aired while they were filming this one. Russell, made a habit of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat and finding immunity idols when other players weren't even bothered to look (a strategy I always thought I'd employ if I were ever on the show). I'd be searching for immunity idols from the moment I landed there, whether or not they had clues or not. Russell also played those idols better than anybody before him.

This season he found the idol, however, he did so after his team, the villains had all agreed not to search for them. If somebody did, they'd ferret it out by making them play it during the vote, by voting for them. That didn't faze Russell.

So, now Russell has an idol and in finding it has ostracized himself from the bulk of the team. He has two female allies and though in the previous season he looked at the females as disposable and early turned on them and voted them out with impugnity this season they are all that he has.

Boston Rob's group decided to vote Russell out and make him play the idol. They control six votes. They realized that Russell's three votes put them at risk if they all voted out Russell and he played the idol. The rules stipulate if the idol is played the person with the next amount of votes is eliminated.

Therefore they realized they had to split the votes evenly between Russell and one of his allies. That would create a three way tie. In the event of a tie after the idol has been played there is a revote, and at that point Boston Rob's team would have six votes to three and eliminate either Russell's ally or Russell (if he chose to give the idol to his ally).

Sounds like Russell is doomed. However, Rob as leader of his team made one fatal mistake. He didn't make sure no one diverted from the strategy. He watched Russell approach one of his allies Tyson and failed to get in Tyson's ear after the conversation.


Tiltin Texan said…
I busted Boston Rob once in tournament then again on satellite table. Negraneau wasted his time trying to mentor him.

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